Carrefour: Hype meets gravity: Placing shares on - CW into 1H26; Reiterate UW

Research evidence excerpt

Carrefour: Hype meets gravity: Placing shares on - CW into 1H26; Reiterate UW

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

18 June 2026

Carrefour Underweight

CARR.PA, CA FP

Hype meets gravity: Placing shares on - CW into 1H26; Price (17 Jun 26):€16.44

Reiterate UW ▼Price Target (Dec-27):€9.00 Prior (Dec-27):€10.00

We place CA FP on Negative Catalyst Watch into 1H26 results on July 23. Share

outperformance and investor positioning imply a positive inflection in the equity European Food Retail

story, whilst in turn, our analysis suggests that 1H26 might turn out to be a Borja Olcese AC

downgrade event - looking back at the last few set of interim results, we note (34-91) 516-1511

Carrefour has had a tendency to miss expectations; given our significant negative borja.olcese@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

delta vs consensus heading into 1H26 results, we again see a risk of disappointment

Palak Gargand the need for expectations to reset. In this note we fine tune our estimates

(91-22) 6157-5102

(upping France slightly, whilst more materially downgrading Europe, reflecting palak.x2.garg@jpmorgan.com

latest grocery trends), sitting 5-7% below consensus in the year and DD% below J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

consensus in 1H26, which, in our view, does not support the recent share price

strength (shares +15% YTD, +30% in 12M). In our opinion: Spain remains the only Specialist Sales contact details:

bright spot for the company; Cora is helping market share and LFLs but remains Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

a margin/profit drag for France, whilst the core is yet to inflect in underlying terms; European Consumer

Brazil remains under pressure, with negative volumes denting margins; the rest of (44-20) 3493-3709

olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com