Essity: Q2/H126 Preview: JPMe muted LFL at +0.7%; margin down as COGS inflation bites

Research evidence excerpt

Essity: Q2/H126 Preview: JPMe muted LFL at +0.7%; margin down as COGS inflation bites

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

18 June 2026

Essity Underweight

ESSITYB.ST, ESSITYB SS

Q2/H126 Preview: JPMe muted LFL at +0.7%; margin Price (17 Jun 26):Skr270.20

down as COGS inflation bites Price Target (Dec-27):Skr215.00

Ahead of Q2/H126 results on July 16th, we update our model reflecting industry European Food Producers,

data and discussion with the company. We expect a weak delivery with organic Household & Personal Care

sales growth to remain soft in Q2 at +0.7% (vs consensus 1.2%) and margin down Products, Beverages & Tobacco

100bps leading to EBITA 5% below consensus. We hence reiterate our cautious Celine Pannuti, CFA AC

stance on Essity having downgraded the shares on cost concerns a few months (44-20) 7134-7123

back. We expect pricing in the near term to remain relatively constrained at -0.4% celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

as declines in consumer tissue are yet to be cycled (in H2) and professional sees Edward G Hockin

pricing adjustments against a high comp, whilst increases to reflect recently higher (44-20) 7742-6937

edward.hockin@jpmorgan.com

input costs may be more weighted to H2. We see volumes development at +1.1% J.P. Morgan Securities plc

similar to in Q1. After a COGS tailwind in Q1, Q2 should see inflation become a

headwind, we expect LSD percent inflation, before building in H2 to M-HSD Specialist Sales contact details:

driven by Energy, distribution and RM. Q2 should also see a continued headwind Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

y/y from higher SG&A including A&P. We therefore expect adj. EBITA in Q2 at European Consumer

SEK 4,438m, and a margin of 12.7%. For FY26E, we make limited changes to (44-20) 3493-3709

earnings estimates, and with adj.