Post-FOMC rates update: You‘ll get nothing and like it

Research evidence excerpt

Post-FOMC rates update: You‘ll get nothing and like it

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

17 June 2026

Post-FOMC rates update

You’ll get nothing and like it

• Front-end yields rose 11bp, and the broad curve flattened by a similar amount, Fixed Income Strategy

AC as markets interpreted Chair Warsh’s maiden voyage as FOMC chair in a Jay Barry

hawkish fashion... (1-212) 834-4951

• ...As a result, OIS forwards are now pricing in a full hike by the October FOMC john.f.barry@jpmorgan.comAC

meeting and in excess of 45bp of hikes by next spring. The implied distribution Jason Hunter

(1-212) 270-0034

from options on Dec’26 SOFR futures shifted hawkishly and became more jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

symmetric, with both tails strengthening, indicating elevated policy AC Teresa Ho

uncertainty. (1-212) 834-5087

• Despite energy prices providing the opportunity to turn more dovish, the teresa.c.ho@jpmorgan.com

hawkish comments should continue to bias real yields higher and breakevens Ipek Ozil AC

lower, in line with today’s moves. (1-212) 834-2305

ipek.ozil@jpmorgan.com

• We think yields are biased higher over the near term, especially if those FOMC Pankaj Vohra

members who have forecast hikes this year take the opportunity to elaborate on (1-212) 834 5292

their projections in the coming weeks... pankaj.x.vohra@jpmchase.com

• ...Moreover, Warsh is more clearly putting his imprimatur on the Committee’s Harry Downie

communications, and reduced forward guidance risks volatility rising over (1-212) 270-9500

harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

time, which would also increase term premium and nominal yields. Even after

Chris Hayward today’s move, curves still appear too steep, and we recommend maintaining

(1-212) 622-6152

10s/30s flatteners. chris.hayward@jpmchase.com