JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Fed: Committed to inflation, not communication / Oil: Significant surplus in 2027 / Tech: $5.5tr AI capex by 2030... stay bullish semi-cap equipment

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Fed: Committed to inflation, not communication / Oil: Significant surplus in 2027 / Tech: $5.5tr AI capex by 2030... stay bullish semi-cap equipment

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

17 June 2026

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Fed: Committed to inflation, not

communication / Oil: Significant surplus in 2027 / Tech: $5.5tr AI

capex by 2030… stay bullish semi-cap equipment

Matthew See

+852 2800 8889

matthew.see@jpmorgan.com

APAC Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favoured investment themes.

THE BIG PICTURE: The Fed is committed to inflation (less so communication). Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise in

his first meeting as Fed chair, with a commitment to “price stability” emphasized and the dot plot more hawkish. In

response, bonds sold-off alongside equities, the 2Y UST rallying 16bps to 16m highs (1.5x hikes by end-26 are now

discounted) and the S&P -1.3%.

Big changes at the Fed. Beyond this immediacy of this Fed meeting…. Warsh guided to a “new chapter”, with less

communication (shorter statements, less guidance, less justification) and more reviews of existing practices (a number of

task forces setup). Less guidance means the market will need to make more of their own interpretations… likely pushing

market vol higher.

On Oil, investors are sanguine on the proposed deal. Investor feedback to the draft-released 14x point MOU is that it’s a

great deal for Iran and a positive deal for equities, as oil will start to flow quickly. The IEA also published their 2027 outlook

overnight, and expect a “significant” oil surplus in 2027. We agree - expecting all OECD inventory drawdowns to be fully

restocked by early-27.

On Tech, JPM now estimate $5.5tr of AI capex by 2030.