J.P. Morgan ASEAN FTM 18 Jun 26: Bank meetings takeaways: Slower growth, steady AQ, NIM risks & good non-II; Meeting w/new ID SOE export entity; SG Prop/REITs Aus takeaways; TISCO model update; SG NODX rises again. Wed Jun 17 2026

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan ASEAN FTM 18 Jun 26: Bank meetings takeaways: Slower growth, steady AQ, NIM risks & good non-II; Meeting w/new ID SOE export entity; SG Prop/REITs Aus takeaways; TISCO model update; SG NODX rises again. Wed Jun 17 2026

Asia Pacific Equity Research

ASEAN First to Market 18 June 2026

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Asean Banks (Harsh Wardhan Modi/Daniel Andrew Tan, CFA)

Slower growth, steady AQ, NIM risks and good non-II; takeaways from 20 meetings

We expect banks to deliver and guide for slower loan growth vs. full year targets as credit standards have tightened. For

Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam banks, restrictive financial conditions are an added reason for slower credit growth,

which should also lead to higher CoF. Varying combinations of slower GDP growth, higher inflation and higher rates should lead

to higher NPL formation or at least a pick-up in stage 2 loans across markets. Most banks contend that the AQ trends are

manageable, with a degree of risk for consumer and SME. Corporate credit appears steady almost across the board. Finally,

customer flow businesses appear robust on the back of FX moves, as well as hedging demand. WM flows may have also held

up well, by and large. MTM losses, though, will weigh on select banks. Putting these trends and conversations across 20

companies together, we recommend adding BDO, TCB and Thai fincos for beta; and SGX, VCB, RHB and PBK for steady

growth. Thai banks have held up well, but we worry about the degree of negative revisions from slippage and BoT rule shifts;

while the rebound in Indonesian banks limits further upside as GDP growth should weigh on EPS revisions. In Singapore, rules

regarding tightening of flows should determine performance.