We don’t need no stinking guidance. Wed Jun 17 2026

Research evidence excerpt

We don’t need no stinking guidance. Wed Jun 17 2026

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

17 June 2026

We don’t need no stinking

guidance

For now, the Fed is not providing forward guidance, but that didn’t matter as the Economic and Policy Research

FOMC’s dot plot delivered a clear message today, and it was much more hawkish Michael Feroli

than expected. Chair Warsh did not submit a dot, and with an even number of (1-212) 834-5523

participants the median for this year fell between no change and one hike. Next michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com

year’s dots were also generally above expectations, with the median unchanged JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

from the current rate setting. The decision to leave rates unchanged was reached

by a unanimous 12-0 vote. The post-meeting statement was trimmed down

significantly, eliminating a lot of boilerplate language that seemed unnecessary to

begin with. The forward guidance was dropped entirely, with the only thing close

being a reference that: “The Committee will deliver price stability.” Given the terse

statement that focused on getting inflation back down, one might wonder why the

Committee didn’t hike today. One was left wondering after Warsh’s inaugural

press conference. Warsh gave no context for the recent inflation disappointments,

nor did he offer any framework for thinking about how policy can counteract high

inflation. Instead of answering any questions about the economy or monetary

policy, Warsh announced the creation of five task forces to study various aspects

of monetary policy. In the absence of guidance on the Fed’s reaction function,

upcoming speeches by FOMC officials will take on added importance in thinking

about Fed policy. Today’s dot plot provides a hawkish challenge to our already