Global Economic Research

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economic Research

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

17 June 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

The dots plot

• While the FOMC took no action today, the meeting proved highly eventful. Economic and Policy Research

Most importantly, the dot plot shifted decisively hawkish, challenging our Maia Crook

view that the first Fed rate hike will wait until next year. Nine members of the (1-212) 622-8435

committee now anticipate hikes this year, with six looking for two or more maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

moves. With Chair Warsh refraining from delivering dots, the committee was JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

evenly divided between those looking for hikes and those maintaining a stable Fabio Tomasoni

stance (eight) or projecting easing (one). The forecast revisions explain this fabio.tomasoni@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

shift as the 2026 core inflation projection was raised to 3.3%. Although 2026

Nora Szentivanyi GDP growth was revised down modestly, growth is projected to remain at an

(44-20) 7134-7544

above-potential pace, and there was a substantial shift away from a downside nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

risk bias. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• With growth expected to remain above potential in 2027 and the core inflation Joseph Lupton

forecast revised up to 2.5% for next year, it is hard to understand a median dot (1-212) 834-5735

plot which has policy rates moving back down to current levels next year. The joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

puzzle was reinforced by a much-abbreviated statement that removed any

guidance but reinforced the Fed’s commitment to deliver price stability.

• Chair Warsh reinforced this commitment but was tight-lipped on where policy

will head from here. Warsh repeatedly deferred to the text of the much-