Revisiting Retail: Household outlook turning over

Research evidence excerpt

Revisiting Retail: Household outlook turning over

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

17 June 2026

Revisiting Retail

Household outlook turning over

We moderate our expectations across NCK, BLX and TPW given the more Australia

challenging housing outlook (discussion within). Announced domestic policy

Emerging Companies

changes present as an additional headwind to future housing turnover,

compounding an already weak consumer backdrop. Headline multiples across all Don Carducci AC

three names have moderated and reflect the more subdued trading environment. (61-2) 9003-8379

donald.n.carducci@jpmorgan.com

• Housing turnover exposed to risk: As discussed by our economists (note George Stewart

here), housing turnover is expected to bear the greatest impact from the (61-2) 9003-8199

george.stewart@jpmorgan.com

adjustment to the possible loss of negative gearing. Accordingly, we lower

Laura S Hill expectations for direct housing-related names on a moderating outlook.

(61-2) 9003-8258

• NCK: Domestic sales headwinds, UK thesis in tact. We downgrade NCK to laura.s.hill@jpmorgan.com

Neutral with an A$17.10 PT given growing concerns on the domestic sales J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

outlook. We lower ANZ topline forecasts in FY27/FY28 (+2.8%/+1.4%) with

modest revisions to gross margin assumptions (-50bps in FY27 and FY28) as

a stronger Australian dollar is offset by rising freight costs. FY27 NPAT revised

by -19.1%. Multiple de-rated from previous highs (17.0x 1Y BF P/E, 7.1x 1Y

BF EV/EBITDA). Downgrade to Neutral, A$17.10 PT.

• BLX: Weak sales outlook, weak profit pressure. Sales environment has

moderated post-1H26, with our estimates now reflecting elevated freight/

logistics and China cost inflation pressuring the near term GM outlook. Our