My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks • Insurance • Diversified Financials

Research evidence excerpt

My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks • Insurance • Diversified Financials

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

rob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com JPM | US Fins Daily - My

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 2c...Rotation / FOMC / AI Capex

Fins Beneficiaries / CME

17 June 2026

The key point is that for as eye watering as the AI driven capex has been so far, headline numbers are getting bigger, not

smaller:$5.5tn of AI capex through 2030 (vs. $5.1tn prior), with ~$4.1tn debt-funded. Leverage remains aggressive (LTCs >85%,

sometimes >90%) and issuance has already accelerated: $300bn of AI/data center debt since November alone. IG does the heavy

lifting (~$2.1tn over ‘26–30), with hyperscalers now structurally in the market rather than opportunistic issuers. The supply

picture is also globalizing quickly (USD share down to ~63% vs. 86% last year), which helps absorption but entrenches this as a

persistent feature of credit indices. LevFin and private capital fill in the rest (~$350bn HF issuance, ~$1.4tn private capital call),

with infra managers sitting on ~$400bn dry powder and increasingly leaning into digital assets.

At the company level, some idea of the numbers:

• Top 4 US hyperscalers at ~$700–725bn capex in ’26 (+75% YoY)

• GOOG consuming essentially all internal cash by FY27/28

• META swinging into a ~$100bn cumulative funding gap

• MSFT ~$90–130bn gaps over FY27–28 (notably still under-indexed to IG issuance)

• ORCL already aggressive (debt + hybrids + off-BS lease commitments

This is a clear forward tailwind for a variety of financials sub-sectors: rating agencies of course but also credit trading

infrastructure (TW & MKTX) as well as alternative asset managers.