Progressive: May Update: Margins Strong, Premium Growth Slower but in Line With Consensus

Research evidence excerpt

Progressive: May Update: Margins Strong, Premium Growth Slower but in Line With Consensus

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

17 June 2026

Progressive Overweight

PGR, PGR US

May Update: Margins Strong, Premium Growth Slower Price (16 Jun 26):$204.66

but in Line With Consensus

Insurance - Life & Nonlife

Progressive’s May 2026 results were better than expected overall, marked by Pablo S. Singzon AC

strong margins and premium growth that has slowed but is consistent with (1-212) 622-2295

consensus. PIF additions improved from April 2026 but are still below the LTM pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

average. Decelerating premium growth points to a more competitive environment, Kevin Wijendra

but margins remain healthy, and our view is that valuation has become more (1-212) 622-7054

attractive after the stock’s pullback. kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Progressive reported May operating EPS of $2.18 and net EPS of $2.47, a

better-than-expected result driven by strong underwriting margins. Premium

growth was in line with consensus and PIF additions improved sequentially,

although they are still below the LTM average. The May combined ratio was

82.1% (83.8% ex. cats and PYD), implying a quarter-to-date combined ratio

of 86.1% (vs. 2Q26 consensus of 91.2% and 2Q26 JPM of 92.2%) and a

quarter-to-date accident year combined ratio of 84.1% (vs. 2Q26 consensus of

88.1% and 2Q26 JPM of 88.0%). Net written premium growth in May 2026

was +5.9%, slightly slower than +6.5% in April 2026, and implying quarter-to-

date growth of 6.2%. This is in line with consensus for 2Q26 but lower than our

2Q26 growth forecast of 9.1%. In personal auto, the loss ratio ex. cats was

63.2% in May 2026, better than 63.8% in April 2026 and 64.5% in May 2025.