JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

17 June 2026

An interim agreement reached between US and Iran is positive for EM assets, Emerging Markets Corporate

but the degree of Fed hawkishness is still a key constraint on broader portfolio Strategy

changes (link). Our base case assumption for H2 2026 (see here) has been $100pb Yang-Myung Hong AC

oil price for the remainder of the year. However, an interim agreement that is (1-212) 834-4274

reported to include the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is inspiring oil prices to ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

undershoot these levels, especially as flows through the Strait have already been J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

increasing in recent weeks (see here). As such, growth risks are shifting to the Alisa Meyers

upside and inflation risks to the downside compared to our base case. While this (1-212) 834-9151

alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

direction is favorable for EM markets, the degree is still unclear. A relatively larger J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

downside in oil prices is likely needed to overwhelm a reflationary backdrop driven Soham Gupta

by strong growth and sticky core inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed’s meeting on (91-22) 6157-4196

Wednesday also adds a large layer of uncertainty. As such, our EM strategists soham.gupta@jpmchase.com

remain OW EM FX, MW local rates and MW both sovereign and corporate credit J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

but add bullish expressions via select outright trades and close several bearish Dhawal U Mehta

expressions. (91-22) 6157 3779

dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

The announcement of the US-Iran deal should overall be positive for CEMBI,

but scope for additional tightening may be limited given the spread is already