CoTD: A Return of Capital Intensity & Still a Long Way to Run

Research evidence excerpt

CoTD: A Return of Capital Intensity & Still a Long Way to Run

Idea

June 17, 2026 11:49 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Christopher Snyder, CFA

Equity Analyst

CoTD: A Return of Capital Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.comBrandon Knutson +1 212 761-4470

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

Intensity & Still a Long Way to Toby Okwara

Toby.Okwara@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1693

Run Christine Yao

Research Associate

Christine.Yao@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4193

Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest

Multi-Industry

investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company North America

events, or just ones that we find interesting. Industry View Attractive

Exhibit 1: The chart below plots US Industrial Machinery spend as % of US

Manufacturing Construction activity (both annualized) as a proxy for capital

intensity into the Industrial Economy. While we have seen a pickup over the LTM,

US Mfg capital intensity remains historically low - an opportunity for the capital

equipment providers in our coverage

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, US Census Bureau

The incomings received in response to yesterday's CoTD on expanding US

Manufacturing production capacity (like) expressed surprise and confusion as the

data goes against the leading edge declines in US Mfg construction and sluggish

greenfield project starts. But the reason US producers have been able to quickly

ramp capacity + output post 2025 Liberation Day is because the initial wave of

spend has been focused on efficiency + productivity investment (i.e.,

Automation), smaller projects w/ quicker payoffs relative to large capacity

expansion (link). Exhibit 1 plots US Industrial Machinery Spend as % of US Mfg

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