Riksbank: On hold, with a gentle tightening bias

Research evidence excerpt

Riksbank: On hold, with a gentle tightening bias

Allan Monks Europe Economic Research J P M O R G A N(44-20) 7134-8309 17 June 2026

allan.j.monks@jpmorgan.com

All this being said, the Riksbank based its reasoning and forecasts on the oil futures curve only

up to 10th June. This misses developments on the memorandum of understanding and the very

latest drop in oil. Based on the rate path it has published, we estimate the Riksbank is

signalling close to a 50% chance of a rate hike by December of this year, but the odds would

now arguably be lower than that based on current oil prices and reduced upside tail risks.

Even before the positive geopolitical developments over the past few days, the Riksbank was

making the judgment that the indirect effects will be limited (0.4%-pts at most on the CPIF

in 2027). We have flagged risks of a somewhat less benign outcome than this, based on the

spike seen in some of the pricing surveys. Those spikes are likely to partly retrace, but

nevertheless remain higher than before. The Riksbank runs an upside scenario which

assumes that the indirect effects will be stronger than in its baseline (leaving core inflation

above 3% next year) and require it to act sooner (faster hikes this year). The odds of this

scenario have declined due to the latest drop in oil, but stronger imported inflaton could still

increase pressure on the Riksbank through time.

We expect GDP growth to recover strongly this year after the weak 1Q, potentially improving

pricing power among firms. We also believe that global growth risks for 2H26 are shifting

to the upside. Firm global imported inflation is likely to place clearer upward pressure on

Swedish core inflation through time, and we also look for a shallow but broad tightening cycle