Riksbank: What‘s the rush?: Close paying Dec26 SEK FRA versus Euribor

Research evidence excerpt

Riksbank: What‘s the rush?: Close paying Dec26 SEK FRA versus Euribor

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

17 June 2026

Riksbank: What’s the rush?

Close paying Dec26 SEK FRA versus Euribor

The Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the June meeting, citing Rates Strategy

ACstill elevated uncertainty from disruption in the Middle East. Despite downward Khagendra Gupta

revisions to its baseline forecast for core inflation pressures over 2026, and (44-20) 7134-0486

marginally dovish revisions to GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, the khagendra.x.gupta@jpmorgan.com

Riksbank revised its forecasts for 2027 and 2028 core inflation higher (Figure 1Despite Frida Infante

downwardrevisionstoitsbaselineforecastforcoreinflationpresuresover2026,theRiksbankreviseditsforecastfor2027and2028coreinflationhigher.). The central bank revised its policy rate path forecast marginally higher, mostly (33 1) 8703 2581

over 2027. They show around a 50% probability of a 25bp hike in December and frida.infante@jpmorgan.com

a full 25bp hike by 4Q27, as upside inflation risks continue to dominate the reaction Marcus Mayfield

function (Figure 2…anditspolicyratepathforecastmarginalyhigher,signalinga50%probabilityofa25bphikebyDecemberandaful25bphikeby4Q27,asupsideinflationriskscontinuetodominatethereactionfunction). Nonetheless, we note that “The Riksbank’s forecasts and (44-20) 3493-8050

marcus.mayfield@jpmorgan.com

reasoning in the Monetary Policy Report are based on the information available J.P. Morgan Securities plc

on 11 June” and therefore do not incorporate the most recent, and dovish,

developments in the Middle East.

Figure 1: Despite downward revisions to its Figure 2: …and its policy rate path forecast