Japan Oil Industry: Revise Forecasts and Price Targets; OW on INPEX and Cosmo

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Oil Industry: Revise Forecasts and Price Targets; OW on INPEX and Cosmo

Idea

June 17, 2026 10:45 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MEnergy & Utilities | Japan Reiji Ogino

Equity Analyst

Japan Oil Industry: Revise Reiji.Ogino@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8930

Forecasts and Price Targets;

OW on INPEX and Cosmo Energy & Utilities

Japan

We revise our earnings forecasts for INPEX, Japan Petroleum Industry View In-Line

Exploration, Cosmo Energy Holdings and Iwatani. Our ratings are What’s Changed

INPEX (1605.T) From To

unchanged. Price Target ¥3,970 ¥4,620

Japan Petroleum Exploration

Key Takeaways (1662.T) From To

Price Target ¥1,910 ¥1,920

We see a possibility of oil prices falling further if Middle East tensions move

Cosmo Energy Holdings

toward a resolution. (5021.T) From To

Price Target ¥5,250 ¥5,230

Our key assumptions: Our assumptions for F3/27 1Q (Apr-Jun 2026) onward are Iwatani (8088.T) From To

Brent crude at $80/bbl ($65/bbl previously) and forex at ¥150/$ (unchanged). Brent Price Target ¥1,740 ¥2,020

crude was priced at $78.96/bbl on Jun 16, having hit a YTD high of $118.4/bbl on Mar

Code Company Rating Price Share Potential

31, and we think it could move even lower if Middle East tensions move toward a target price return

resolution. In such an event, we would expect stock selection focused on oil (¥) (16-6-26) (%)

companies to pick up in earnest in the stock market once the downtrend in oil prices 1605 INPEX OW 4,620 3,378.0 36.8

1662 JAPEX EW 1,920 1,648.0 16.5

stabilizes. Middle East developments therefore continue to bear watching.

5021 Cosmo Energy HD OW 5,230 3,676.0 42.3

8088 Iwatani EW 2,020 1,857.5 8.7

INPEX (OW): We stay OW as INPEX looks relatively undervalued within the

subindustry.