REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
The ‘Golden Age‘
Research evidence excerpt
The ‘Golden Age‘
Idea
July 14, 2026 12:01 PM GMT
Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MRefiners | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari
Equity Analyst
The "Golden Age" Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+ +65 6834-6719
Jack Lu
Fuel markets have weathered three shocks in six years and EquityJack.Lu@morganstanley.comAnalyst +852 2848-5044
emerged stronger each time. We see more legs to our bullish
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+
fuel refining cycle view. Asian refiners should enjoy a new higher Young Suk Shin
mid-cycle - the market overestimates new capacity addition and EquityYoung.Shin@morganstanley.comAnalyst +82 2 399-4994
underestimates disruption to existing capacity.
Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+
Reiji Ogino
Equity AnalystKey Takeaways
Reiji.Ogino@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8930
We see global refinery utilisation rates rising by 180bps in 2025-28e and Asian
Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+
refinery Fuel margins to stay 30-35% above mid-cycle.
Vivek Rajamani
With >2-3mbpd of fuel refining capacity facing challenges to run, and very limited Equity Analyst
Vivek.Rajamani@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6740
new capacity adds over next three years, refining markets are a lot tighter.
Ryan M Heng
Diesel margins should grid higher, beyond the oil shock, with stronger-than- Equity Analyst
Ryan.Heng@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6465
expected fuel consumption growth. Asian refiners have 50% exposure to diesel.
Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+
Raising refining margin estimates ~15-20% across coverage to reflect tight global Hinal Choudhary
fuel markets. We see 40%+ upside to Street 2026e/2027e EPS. Research Associate
Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044
HPCL, Thai Oil, PTTGC.
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