The ‘Golden Age‘

研报英文原文证据摘录

The ‘Golden Age‘

Idea

July 14, 2026 12:01 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MRefiners | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

The "Golden Age" Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+ +65 6834-6719

Jack Lu

Fuel markets have weathered three shocks in six years and EquityJack.Lu@morganstanley.comAnalyst +852 2848-5044

emerged stronger each time. We see more legs to our bullish

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+

fuel refining cycle view. Asian refiners should enjoy a new higher Young Suk Shin

mid-cycle - the market overestimates new capacity addition and EquityYoung.Shin@morganstanley.comAnalyst +82 2 399-4994

underestimates disruption to existing capacity.

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Reiji Ogino

Equity AnalystKey Takeaways

Reiji.Ogino@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8930

We see global refinery utilisation rates rising by 180bps in 2025-28e and Asian

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+

refinery Fuel margins to stay 30-35% above mid-cycle.

Vivek Rajamani

With >2-3mbpd of fuel refining capacity facing challenges to run, and very limited Equity Analyst

Vivek.Rajamani@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6740

new capacity adds over next three years, refining markets are a lot tighter.

Ryan M Heng

Diesel margins should grid higher, beyond the oil shock, with stronger-than- Equity Analyst

Ryan.Heng@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6465

expected fuel consumption growth. Asian refiners have 50% exposure to diesel.

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Raising refining margin estimates ~15-20% across coverage to reflect tight global Hinal Choudhary

fuel markets. We see 40%+ upside to Street 2026e/2027e EPS. Research Associate

Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044

HPCL, Thai Oil, PTTGC.