Sho-Time: Great Momentum, Great Volatility: Focus List Changes

Research evidence excerpt

Sho-Time: Great Momentum, Great Volatility: Focus List Changes

Idea

June 23, 2026 01:58 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MJapan Equity Strategy | Japan Sho Nakazawa

Equity Strategist

Sho-Time: Great Momentum, Sho.Nakazawa@morganstanleymufg.comKazuya Hayashi +81 3 6836-8926

Kazuya.Hayashi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8923

Great Volatility: Focus List Masahiro Tran

Masahiro.Tran@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8878

Changes Ukyo Haraguchi, CFA

Quantitative Strategist

Ukyo.Haraguchi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8925

We think the recent sharp pullback in equities reflects a Kanji Ohi, CFA

combination of fading confidence in the AI narrative, growing QuantitativeKanji.Ohi@morganstanleymufg.comStrategist +81 3 6836-8924

concerns over regulatory and policy risks, and position

adjustments ahead of key events such as Nvidia’s shareholder

meeting. That said, underlying earnings trends remain solid, and

we still see no change in the structural advantages of Japan’s

Picks & Shovels names, supported by sustained EPS growth.

The structural advantages of Japan’s Picks & Shovels remain intact: The recent

sell-off likely stemmed from a combination of factors, including uncertainty

surrounding the AI investment cycle, concerns over tighter regulation of leveraged

ETFs in Korea, and position adjustments ahead of major events such as Nvidia’s

shareholder meeting and Micron’s earnings release. However, corporate earnings

trends themselves remain robust, and we believe the recent decline in Japanese

equities should be viewed as a healthy correction following a period of rapid market

appreciation. As discussed in Sho-Time: US Trip Feedback – The Era of Picks &

Shovels Continues, the AI rally has been rotating across different themes, while the