US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (UK) CPI/PPI at 2am ET. (UK) Retail Price Index at 2am ET.

(Eurozone) CPI at 5am ET. (Japan) Japan Buying Foreign Bonds at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Yesterday, we saw a tech-led selloff today despite further decline in oil prices; see below on some key

market discussion points and preview for today’s Retail Sales and FOMC:

• US-IRAN DEAL – A WSJ article (here) today gave more details about the upcoming US/Iran deal:

“The U.S. will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal to end the war.” The

headline added further pressure on oil (WTI -5%); bond yields fell 1-4bp today.

o Earlier this morning, a BBG article reported that “Qatar Plans to Rapidly Restart LNG Output

After Hormuz Opens.” From JPM Commodities Analyst Otar Dgebuadze: “Lot of incoming

today on press reports of "rapid" ramp up in Qatar LNG facility. The report actually states “50%

in 1 month, 80% in 2 months". Our estimate was 2-3 months to 83% capacity (i.e. full capacity

ex. the two damaged trains). So it is maybe just slightly ahead of our estimate, but not

materially “rapid”. The key to watch here is whether they will be fully up and reliably running

ahead of winter or shall market price risks of unavailability in winter.”

• TECH WEAKNESS – Comments from JPM trader Brian Heavey: “Overall HT volumes are very

subdued today (-33% on HT). Momentum trade taking a breaker with Semis taking a pulling back.

Don't think there's anything specific to the weakness outside of 1) Extremely crowded positioning 2)

Negative 3p checks for AMD showing DC revs slowing on CPU deployments in Q2 3) Some digestion

of the WH / Anthropic battle and subsequent pulling of Fable 5 and Mythos. The space ripped on the