Nordic Economics: Riksbank: The Slightly Hawkish Spin is Already Obsolete

Research evidence excerpt

Nordic Economics: Riksbank: The Slightly Hawkish Spin is Already Obsolete

Flash |

17 Jun 2026 05:01:41 ET │ 8 pages

Nordic Economics

Riksbank: The Slightly Hawkish Spin is Already Obsolete

CITI’S TAKE

The Riksbank’s slightly higher probability of a rate hike this year

embedded in the new rate path is based on much higher oil prices than

today’s, magnifying the risks of second-round effects. The Riksbank

continues to see domestically-generated inflation pressures as “subdued”

and “ample spare capacity in the economy“. We continue to expect rates Giada GianiAC

on hold this year and possibly for most of 2027. +39-02-8906-8211

giada.giani@citi.com

• A slightly hawkish tilt– The Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged today at

1.75% as widely expected. In a slightly more hawkish tilt than we had envisaged,

the MPR revised the rate path slightly higher compared to March (by 5bp in

4Q26, and 8bp in 1Q27). We had expected a small downward shift. The new path

signals a slightly higher probability of a rate hike this year, but with the projected

policy rate averaging 1.76% in 3Q, 1.82% in 4Q26 and 1.89% in 1Q27, such

probability remains well below 50%.

• New rate path already obsolete – The new MPR forecasts were based on energy

prices at the cut-off date of 10 June, when the Brent was still ca. 93$/bbl. At

today’s prices (78$/bbl) the risks of indirect effects from energy on the rest of

inflation look much lower and the new rate path may look already obsolete. The

MPR revised near-term inflation lower (2026 CPIF down from 1.5% to 1.1%), but

2027 higher albeit still below target (at 1.7% vs 1.3% previously). 2028 CPIF

inflation is seen rebounding to 2.8% on the reversal of this year’s food VAT cut .

The outlook on growth remains quite optimistic in our view, despite the 1Q-26