China Basic Materials: May 26 NBS data remains soft; market to focus on Hormuz reopening and interest rate expectations

Research evidence excerpt

China Basic Materials: May 26 NBS data remains soft; market to focus on Hormuz reopening and interest rate expectations

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

17 June 2026

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China Basic Materials

May 26 NBS data remains soft; market to focus on

Hormuz reopening and interest rate expectations

China’s May activity data remained soft (link to report), reinforcing a still-cautious Asia Basic Materials

ACdomestic demand backdrop for commodities. Against this backdrop, in our view, Avery Chan

improving expectations of US-Iran de-escalation and a potential reopening of the (852) 2800-8659

Strait of Hormuz could support a tactical rebound in metals names that have been avery.chan@jpmorgan.com

pressured by risk-off sentiment since the onset of the conflict, with copper and gold Sabrina Liu

likely offering greater share-price recovery potential. Aluminum is more nuanced: (852) 2800-8535

reopening could release constrained Middle East inventories and pressure LME sabrina.liu@jpmorgan.com

prices near term, recently around US$3,360/t, but we remain constructive medium Frankie Fong

term, as the market appears to have priced in Indonesia’s new capacity ahead of any (852) 2800-8574

frankie.fong@jpmorgan.com

material 2027 impact, while our commodities team still forecasts a ~1.7mmt J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

primary aluminum deficit in 2026. On lithium, prices have found support around Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited