G10 FX: EUR

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX: EUR

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 17 June 2026

G10 FX

EUR Died a bit of a death here, guess need to get Warsh out of the way and this MOU signed, the

question is whether there is a trade thereafter other than this low vol drift? Strategy thinks a

message of policy orthodoxy from the new Fed Chair will be enough to move the dollar back

into the ascendancy, I am more of the opinion that would have to be accompanied by a hawkish

shift in the dots for 2027. Otherwise with his distaste for forward guidance and it being his first

meeting I am not sure he will want to say too much, but on the flip side if he has dovish

undertones then the market will go back to its original thinking on credibility of the Fed as an

institution but I see that as low delta. On the “deal” in the Middle East, details emerging suggest

little in terms of tangibles to act upon now beyond where asset prices have repriced since the

weekend but should in theory be lower headline risk for a few weeks at least (beyond both sides

trying to spin it as a win!).

I don’t think Warsh can afford to come across too dovish and be seen as a Trump puppet in his

first meeting, but going in don’t see much value being more than dollar neutral and hanging out

in crosses. Only new risk is have added a little to eurnok shorts here, the local story is positive

and given the fact we are probing the lows in oil I feel the currency is starting to stabilise into

the Norges meeting tomorrow.

Little to add on the euro here, think if the Fed is perceived as hawkish a short sets up well given

we at the height of optimism on the Middle East too and we really haven’t done any damage

technically on the topside.