EM FX Daily Report -17th June 2026. Wed Jun 17 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report -17th June 2026. Wed Jun 17 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com EM FX Daily Report -17th June 2026

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 17 June 2026

HUF The draft 14-point US/Iran deal outlines how Iran will be allowed access to oil markets upon its

signing. This added to the headwinds facing energy yesterday, and alongside HF inflows and a

break of 350, EURHUF etched out a fresh YTD low for a third day in a row at 348.60. Musings

from the CEE conference suggest that, following some profit taking, the market is not as

positioned in HUF as it would like to be, especially if the cross were to remain heavy. The

geopolitical developments, positioning, and recent momentum suggest EURHUF has further to

fall, so keeping cash shorts and adding to downside exposure as vol looks attractive at these

levels. The Fed tonight is another hurdle that needs clearing, but given Warsh’s well-flagged

disdain of forward guidance and the market pricing 20bps of hikes this year, I think the bar is

high for a hawkish surprise.

CZK Quiet session for FX yesterday and for the koruna as well, with the desk seeing mixed flows-

RM and HF supply of the currency, partially offset by Systematic demand which left the

currency trading mainly sideways. Focus turns to Warsh tonight, followed by tomorrow’s CNB

decision, where we expect a 25bp rate hike. With the move mostly priced in, it should have

limited impact on CZK, which is likely to remain driven by broader risk sentiment.

RON Cross came lower yesterday despite the ongoing domestic political upheaval. Would be

surprised to see eur/ron much below 5.2300 though.

ILS It felt like there was more buying interest again in usd/ils yesterday with another steady right