GEMS FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

GEMS FIRST TO MARKET

Global Equity Research AC Global Equity Research

17 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

gr_publications@jpmorgan.com

Capital Flow Policy: Mixed impacts, clearer framework - gauging implications for CNY and Banks

China’s policymakers have introduced multiple regulatory updates affecting capital flows in recent months, including tighter

outbound investment rules. Taken together, these measures reflect a mix of relaxation and tightening with differing implications

for cross-border flows, and we view them as part of a broader effort to complete a comprehensive capital-flow regulatory

framework rather than a move to restrict capital outflows. From an FX perspective, we expect the latest changes to provide a

modest near-term tailwind for the CNY, although the medium-term implications are less clear. For the banking sector, we see

BOC benefiting from a NIM tailwind as FX deposit spreads widen, while for Hong Kong banks, the potential headwind to wealth

management tied to Mainland Chinese Visitor (MCV) business is well-flagged (link), but the tailwind from CIB activity appears

underappreciated. In particular, we expect STAN and HSBC to benefit from the relaxation of multi-national company’s cash

management rules, greater flexibility around onshore corporates’ overseas lending, expanded regulated channels for inbound/

outbound financial investments, and continued progress in RMB internationalization.

Asia Energy (Parsley Ong)

Middle East escalation tracker: China PE utilizations recover in June, but apparent oil product

demand continues to worsen

As the market debates the speed of Hormuz reopening, a common question is the extent to which China will turn from shock

absorber back to major buyer and oil product exporter.