Global Covered Bonds 26H2 Outlook: The journey is the destination

Research evidence excerpt

Global Covered Bonds 26H2 Outlook: The journey is the destination

J P M O R G A N Europe Credit Research

17 June 2026

Global Covered Bonds 26H2

Outlook

The journey is the destination

• Supply stays on course; we maintain our FY26 gross EUR benchmark issuance Europe Corporate Credit - Covered

forecast of €175bn (with only modest country-level tweaks), supported by Bonds and UK Housing

strong YTD momentum, broadly supportive loan/deposit dynamics, and pre- Associations

funding potential ahead of higher FY27 redemptions. However, ECB-adjusted Suraj Dey, CFA AC

net supply would be roughly just €8.5bn in H2, assuming we close H1 with (44-20) 7134-1722

two-thirds of our FY26 forecast completed. suraj.dey@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• We briefly touch upon potential funding competitors of covered bonds, but in Prakhar Agarwal

the grand scheme of things believe none of senior unsecured, retained issuance, (91-22) 6157 3046

or regulatory-enhanced securitisation as posing any meaningful impact on prakhar.x3.agarwal@jpmchase.com

covered bond supply. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• We expect issuers to continue favouring the 5-7Y tenor, with sub‑5Y and 10Y+

remaining more opportunistic; curve flattening and long-end RV versus SSAs

could temper demand at the back end, while front-end demand is still

underpinned by good yield/RV.

• In terms of currency, we expect GBP and USD to remain structurally active

funding channels (not just episodic), helped by supportive technicals/

redemptions, competitive cross-currency-adjusted pricing, investor

diversification dynamics, as well as UK regulatory developments (OPRR) that

might make sterling comparatively more attractive for some non-European

issuers.