G10 FX Daily Report - 16th June 2026. Tue Jun 16 2026

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX Daily Report - 16th June 2026. Tue Jun 16 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com G10 FX Daily Report - 16th June

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 2026

16 June 2026

JPY Board member Asada voted against the decision to raise rates was probably the only headline to

deviate from expectations in the BoJ decision, Uchida delivered one of the tightest USDJPY

ranges I have EVER seen (20 pips) for a press conference, now we have had the PRESS

CONFERENCE ENDS headline is it time to go off to the races? Maybe, but it would not

surprise me to see a rate check today on a break of 160.725 (prior cycle high), bold action feels

pretty impossible ahead of the Fed so I think from a tactical standpoint I would look to buy

super short dated USDJPY downside to cover the Fed meeting if we see USDJPY on a 161

handle today/tomorrow. Might well be a yawn but JPY short positioning is certainly gathering

steam and with the MOU under the belt I think the MoF will have the finger on the opportunistic

trigger for the Warsh presser.

CHF The franc reversed part of yesterday’s move, though overall flows in the currency were muted.

We still expect CHF to be used as a funder over the medium term and continue to see scope to

be long USD/CHF here—primarily as a hedge against some USD/EM shorts. We maintain this

view ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting.

AUD The RBA left rates unchanged as expected and delivered a data dependent hawkish message.

Inflation continues to be a concern and the statement concluded with the line ‘It will do

whatever it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate

target further if required.’ In the presser, Bullock played down the recent monthly Inflation data,