Japan Real Estate and REITs: Investment strategy in light of BoJ meeting

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Japan Real Estate and REITs: Investment strategy in light of BoJ meeting

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16 Jun 2026 04:51:45 ET │ 14 pages

Japan Real Estate and REITs

Investment strategy in light of BoJ meeting

CITI'S TAKE

Masashi Miki, CFA AC

On June 16, the BoJ decided to hike its policy rate by 25bps and to cease its +81-3-6776-4665

reduction of JGB purchases from April 2027. While the decisions were in line masashi.miki@citi.com

with expectations, real estate and J-REIT sector share prices reacted

somewhat negatively. Although rate hikes are generally negative for the

sector as they increase interest payments and push up cap rates, real estate

fundamentals remain favorable, particularly for offices, and we believe

profit growth can be sustained. We expect a further improvement in the

business environment, in the form of accelerating office rent hikes, to act as

a catalyst. We prefer developers over J-REITs.

Real estate sector — Going forward, we look for a re-rating as uncertainty regarding

interest rates dissipates and the easing of the Middle East situation reduces concern

about construction-related issues. NAV multiples have declined significantly amid

the decline in share prices over the past three months, reinvigorating the sector’s

investment appeal. While we expect no surprises at Q1 results, we think further

evidence of the favorable business environment, upward revisions in Q2,

shareholder returns, and discussions about new medium-term plans will serve as

catalysts. Among individual stocks, we highlight Mitsui Fudosan, Mitsubishi Estate,

Sumitomo Realty & Development, and Tokyo Tatemono.

Office market — The May vacancy rate in Tokyo's five central wards fell to 2.07% (-

0.13pt MoM), while average rent rose to ¥22,845 (+10% YoY) as rent hikes

accelerated.