Citigroup Global Perspectives

Research evidence excerpt

Citigroup Global Perspectives

Global Gas and Power Insights

16 June 2026 Citi Research

Figure 1. Global natural gas prices - historical and forecasts for Asian JKM LNG,

European TTF and US Henry Hub natural gas - generally lower due to various

forms of oversupply

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg

US natural gas

US Henry Hub remains weighed down by the projected inventory of ~4-Tcf by the

end of Oct’26, which is at the high end of the typical range of 3.6 to 4.0-Tcf. Please

see the balance in Figure 68.

We lower our forecast for Henry Hub prices to $3.1/MMBtu for 3Q26, $3.3/MMBtu

for 4Q26 and $2.8/MMBtu for 2027. While our 3Q26 forecast is largely market

neutral, 4Q26 and 2027 forecasts represent downside of 5% and 19% compared to the

current forward curves, respectively. As of 9:35pm EST June 15, 2026, forward curves

point to 4Q26 and 2027 trading at $3.5 and $3.5/MMBtu respectively.

US natural gas markets are largely detached from global LNG and European

natural gas markets since US LNG exports have already been running at

maximum capacity. The continued ramp-up of LNG exports from both Golden

Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3 Expansion is already priced in, and the momentum

of US domestic natural gas production remains strong.

A key driver of looser fundamentals is strong production expected from Haynesville

Basin and Permian Basin. Haynesville rig count has risen from 42 at the beginning of

the year to 55 now. The 2H25 production surge could provide guidance on the

strength of production increase (see our Dec’25 report: Global Gas and Power Insights:

Estimating the real Haynesville production and the right prices to lift production

growth).