The 2H26 Biopharma Outlook: More to like coming down the pike

Research evidence excerpt

The 2H26 Biopharma Outlook: More to like coming down the pike

Key takeaways

CEO/CFO Call Series highlights catalysts, AI and GLP-1s as drivers of Biopharma sentiment

- Relatively light biopharma performance as fund flows move out of healthcare, yet policy concerns

subside for now

- S&P500: +10.6% vs. DRG index: +4.0% vs. XBI: +12.0%; 1H26 saw -$225M in net outflows in Biopharma (-$1.7B broad healthcare)

- Deal momentum into 2H26

- M&A/BD remains a central pillar of the Biopharma investment debate, with activity rebounding from 2024 and 1H26

momentum suggesting a healthier, more durable deal backdrop than investors expected

- The 2H26 setup remains constructive, supported by LOE pressure, attractive SMid-cap valuations, large-cap balance

sheet capacity and continued strategic need for external innovation across high-conviction growth areas like obesity,

immunology, neuroscience and oncology

- Takeaways from CEO/CFO Call Series: AI, GLP-1, and BD / M&A

- AI is becoming a durable large-cap biopharma efficiency theme, with companies emphasizing productivity gains across R&D, regulatory,

manufacturing, commercial and finance workflows rather than near-term AI-discovered drug revenue

- GLP-1/obesity remains the sector’s dominant growth driver, but the investor debate is expanding beyond Lilly/Novo market share toward

Medicare access, oral adoption, channel strategy, pricing elasticity, manufacturing scale and next-generation combinations

- BD/M&A remains a core strategic priority for large-cap biopharma, with management teams focused less on financial engineering and

more on differentiated science, platform depth, unmet need and long-term growth durability

- Catalysts and conferences on the radar