US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)

• US MACRO DATA: ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8.15am ET. Import Price, NY Fed Services

Business Activity, Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8.30am ET. G7 Summit (JUN 15-17).

• US EARNINGS: N/A

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Germany) ZEW Survey Expectations and Current Situation at 5am ET.

(Eurozone) ZEW Survey Expectations at 5am ET. (Japan) Trade Balance, Core Machine Orders at

7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

In our Morning Briefing yesterday, we highlighted the similarity in market set-up between the upcoming

US/Iran MOU and the April 8th ceasefire deal, which was characterized as (i) limited move in bond yields and

(ii) the “everything rally” being relatively short-lived (please reach out if you would like to receive the full note

and return charts).

Yesterday’s price actions showed this similarity: (i) the initial decline in bond yields overnight reversed

intraday; 10y yield was nearly flat vs. Friday’s close; (ii) taking a closer look at the intraday price actions,

while we saw an “everything rally” during the overnight futures session, Hormuz reopening trades (Airlines,

Housing) and RTY reversed lower intraday, while Semis remains the leadership. Tech did the heavy lifting in

the index level gains with NDX (+3.1%) outperforming RTY (0.8%) by nearly 2%. We expect these price

actions to continue for the remainder of this week, especially if Fed decision leads to any further pressure on

bond yields.

• TMT COLOR FROM BRIAN HEAVEY– 1) More Consumer sensitive names leading in TMT w/

pullback in oil --> DASH, UBER etc leading. Mag7 seeing a nice bounce after being a big IPO

issuance source of funds last week. AMZN, GOOGL, META. 2) Demand on our desk is mostly for