Full Truck Alliance: Clean-up complete, but sustainable growth not yet visible, stay Neutral; model update

Research evidence excerpt

Full Truck Alliance: Clean-up complete, but sustainable growth not yet visible, stay Neutral; model update

Karen Li, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research

(852) 2800-8589 16 June 2026

karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Full Truck Alliance (Neutral; Price Target: $8.60)

Investment Thesis

Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) is the largest digital platform in China’s inter-city

road freight transportation market. YMM’s efforts to strengthen platform governance

and expand internationally since 2Q25 have not yet translated into sustainable

growth or margin improvement, while regulatory and macro challenges continue to

weigh on core operations. Investor questions remain around margin sustainability,

the impact of regulatory headwinds, and the timeline for new business contributions.

We see risk-reward as more balanced at current levels, but are not moving to OW

given the lack of visibility on a clear volume or margin inflection. We have a Neutral

rating on the shares.

Valuation

Our Jun-27 PT of US$8.6 is based on an average of 13% EPS growth in FY26E-27E,

and a target PEG of 1x.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside risks to our rating and price target include: (1) economic recovery – a

stronger-than-expected recovery in the broader economy could boost order demand

and pricing, leading to enhanced monetization and revenue growth for FTA; (2)

regulatory support – favourable regulatory changes in China’s road freight industry

could facilitate FTA’s business model and support the execution of its monetization

strategies, positively impacting financial performance; and (3) competitive

advantage – FTA’s ability to leverage its digital platform and network could

strengthen its market share and improve margins, enhancing the company’s