Spanish Banks: CNMC opens mortgage probe – precedent points to a soft landing

Research evidence excerpt

Spanish Banks: CNMC opens mortgage probe – precedent points to a soft landing

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

16 June 2026

Spanish Banks

CNMC opens mortgage probe – precedent points to a

soft landing

Spain’s mortgage market is, by most measures, one of the most competitive in European Banks

ACEurope (Figure 2Spainfrontbokmortgageratesvs.Eurozone). All the more surprising, then, that the country’s antitrust Marta Sanchez Romero

authority, the CNMC, today opened a probe into the listed Spanish banks for (44-20) 3493-2517

possible breaches of Article 1 of the Spanish Competition Act. The regulator has marta.sanchezromero@jpmorgan.com

24 months to reach a conclusion. Precedent offers some comfort: the last high- Mariana Andrade

profile investigation into the sector — the 2023 deposits probe — was closed in the (44-20) 3493-9303

banks’ favour after two and a half years, and we expect a similar outcome here. We mariana.andrade@jpmorgan.com

rate CABK, BBVA, and BKT Overweight. Kian Abouhossein

(44-20) 7134-4575

kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

What’s new? The Spanish Antitrust Authority (CNMC) has initiated disciplinary J.P. Morgan Securities plc

proceedings against Bankinter, Banco Santander, BBVA, Unicaja, Caixabank, and

Sabadell for possible practices contrary to Article 1 of the Spanish Competition Act Specialist Sales contact details:

(LDC). The CNMC is investigating whether bank executives made public Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

statements about future commercial policy — specifically on fixed-rate mortgage European Financials

interest rates — that may have enabled competitors to anticipate each other’s (44-20) 7134-0355

behavior. The opening of the case does not prejudge its outcome, and the CNMC ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com