Motiva: Contract Amendment at ViaQuatro Announced with No Incremental NPV; Focus Shifts to Ongoing Discussions on AutoBan, SPVias, and Line 5

Research evidence excerpt

Motiva: Contract Amendment at ViaQuatro Announced with No Incremental NPV; Focus Shifts to Ongoing Discussions on AutoBan, SPVias, and Line 5

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

16 June 2026

Motiva

Contract Amendment at ViaQuatro Announced with No Overweight

Incremental NPV; Focus Shifts to Ongoing Discussions MOTV3.SA, MOTV3 BZ

on AutoBan, SPVias, and Line 5 Price (15 Jun 26):R$13.98

Latin American Transportation

Motiva (MOTV3, OW) announced last night the expected additional amendment Guilherme Mendes AC

for ViaQuatro (São Paulo subway line 4). The agreement provides for R$677 (55-11) 4950-4105

million in investments (1% of Motiva’s CapEx balance) related to the guilherme.g.mendes@jpmorgan.com

implementation of the signaling system. These investments will be compensated Julia Orsi

by the state government, meaning there is no incremental net present value impact, (55-11) 4950 3351

as the government will reimburse the incremental investments in cash. Recall that julia.orsi@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

this announcement follows the 20-year ViaQuatro extension announced last year

—more details below. On the one hand, we view the announcement as positive in

the sense that the regulatory agenda is progressing. On the other hand, we had

expected yesterday's ViaQuatro amendment to include an NPV contribution—not

currently embedded in our estimates—which may nonetheless disappoint

investors despite the neutral impact on valuation. Importantly, we still expect other

amendments related to AutoBan, SPVias, and Line 5 to be announced in the near

term, potentially adding another R$14–16 billion in incremental CapEx and likely

bringing a positive NPV contribution—more details here. We maintain our

Overweight rating on MOTV, currently trading at 11.9% real IRR.