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JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Tech Digestion / FOMC What to Watch: US Market Thematics – Specialist Sales Commentary

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

16 June 2026

US/Iran Deal Updates: *TRUMP: WE’RE IN NO RUSH TO GET THE NUCLEAR MATERIAL

This morning in a bilateral meeting with the UAE Trump stated “were in no rush to get nuclear material.” A bit ironic..?

What this speaks to is the expiration date that was always in place for Strait blockage. Realistically, both sides couldn’t go any

longer with Iran’s economy severely constrained and the state of global oil inventories flashing worrying signals. Derek Chollet

(JPM Center for Geopolitics) highlighted this in his note last night “The U.S. & Iran: Are We Back to Where We Started?”

“What broke the deadlock? As we wrote a few weeks ago, we expected this kind of narrow agreement. The stalemate in the Strait

was not sustainable for either side—something had to give. It’s hard to say exactly what pushed this over the edge, but we think it

was some combination of the near-miss escalation after last week’s downed U.S. helicopter; rising sensitivity to energy prices as

inflation jumped to 4.2% in May; and creative accounting that gave Iran some form of economic sweetener up front—but kept the

terms vague enough to make it politically palatable in Washington, at least for now.

The devil is in the details—particularly on the nuclear file. We’re especially watching whether the U.S. has guaranteed sanctions

relief or asset unfreezing; what (if anything) Iran is permitted to do on enrichment going forward; and how uranium stockpiles

will be handled. Those specifics determine how this compares to the Obama-era JCPOA—which will be the ultimate benchmark

for judging who won this war”

FOMC - What to Watch