Top Stories

Research evidence excerpt

Top Stories

Akira Kishimoto AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(81-3) 6736-8646 17 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

akira.x.kishimoto@jpmorgan.com

recommendations are Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) and Mizuho Financial Group, which have relatively high CET1

ratios among the megabanks, and Japan Post Bank, which is well placed to capture earnings opportunities from the rise in the

10-year JGB yield.

Confectionery / Dairy Subsector (Satoshi Fujiwara)

Cartel conduct suspected in commercial frozen-dessert category; price increases seem unlikely for

a while

On June 16, Nihon Keizai Shimbun among other media reported that the Japan Fair Trade Commission was looking into six

companies: Meiji Holdings, Lotte, Morinaga Milk Industry, Morinaga & Co, Akagi Nyugyo, and Ezaki Glico. Reportedly, there are

suspicions that the major manufacturers had agreed amongst themselves to raise the suggested retail price of their commercial

ice-cream products by about ¥10-20 per item. In the frozen-dessert industry, price increases have been implemented every

year since 2022. The current inspections will likely make manufacturers reluctant to raise prices on frozen desserts for a while.

Our earnings forecasts for Morinaga & Co and Morinaga Milk Industry are based on the assumption that they will implement

price increases of 6-7% from September 2026. If they postpone these price increases, volumes will likely increase, but the

considerable effect of price revisions will be lost. We estimate that frozen-dessert business could thus cause annual

undershoots of ¥1-2 billion on our operating profit forecasts. Going forward, we will closely watch what happens with fines.

Advantest (6857) (Mio Shikanai) (6857 JP, OW)

Raising earnings estimates: Expectations for CPU/CPO demand in addition to GPU/ASIC