US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR)

• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. Retail Sales at 8.30am

ET. Business Inventories and Pending Home Sales at 10am ET. FOMC Rate Decision at 2pm

ET.

• US EARNINGS TOMORROW: JBL, KMX

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (UK) CPI/PPI at 2am ET. (UK) Retail Price Index at

2am ET. (Eurozone) CPI at 5am ET. (Japan) Japan Buying Foreign Bonds at 7:50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

A tech-led selloff today despite further decline in oil prices; see below on some key market discussion

points and preview for tomorrow’s Retail Sales and FOMC:

• US-IRAN DEAL – A WSJ article (here) today gave more details about the upcoming US/Iran

deal: “The U.S. will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal to end the

war.” The headline added further pressure on oil (WTI -5%); bond yields fell 1-4bp today.

o Earlier this morning, a BBG article reported that “Qatar Plans to Rapidly Restart LNG

Output After Hormuz Opens.” From JPM Commodities Analyst Otar Dgebuadze: “Lot of

incoming today on press reports of "rapid" ramp up in Qatar LNG facility. The report

actually states “50% in 1 month, 80% in 2 months". Our estimate was 2-3 months to 83%

capacity (i.e. full capacity ex. the two damaged trains). So it is maybe just slightly ahead

of our estimate, but not materially “rapid”. The key to watch here is whether they will be

fully up and reliably running ahead of winter or shall market price risks of unavailability in

winter.”

• TECH WEAKNESS – Comments from JPM trader Brian Heavey: “Overall HT volumes are very

subdued today (-33% on HT). Momentum trade taking a breaker with Semis taking a pulling

back.