US Treasury Market Daily: Long time listener, first time caller

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily: Long time listener, first time caller

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

16 June 2026

US Treasury Market Daily

Long time listener, first time caller

• Yields declined by 2-4bp as the curve flattened by 2bp, outperforming the rest Fixed Income Strategy

AC of the DM. Today’s 20-year auction was well received, stopping 1bp through Jay Barry

pre-auction levels (1-212) 834-4951

• Looking ahead, all eyes are set on tomorrow’s FOMC decision and press john.f.barry@jpmorgan.comAC

conference. We expect the “additional adjustments” phrase will be removed Jason Hunter

(1-212) 270-0034

from the statement and look for no dissents. We expect the SEP dots to be jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

revised higher from one cut to no cuts for 2026, but still retain one cut in 2027...

Harry Downie

• ...There is a high degree of uncertainty over Chair Warsh’s debut. We think the (1-212) 270-9500

dots will constrain his language, as conveying an easing bias may jeopardize harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

his credibility, and thus we expect Warsh to keep the tone broadly neutral Liam L Wash

(1-212) 834-5230

• We unwind our 5-year breakeven wideners as Brent oil prices have moved liam.wash@jpmchase.com

below $80 and away from our commodity strategists $98 year end forecast. We Amanda Berke

look to re-enter long positions once we see a stabilization in commodity prices (1-212) 834-5739

and a catalyst that would enable inflation markets to re-price to our commodity amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com

strategist’s view J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Statistics for various on-the-run Treasury yields, curve spreads, and TIPS

breakevens

1d chg WTD chg QTD chg YTD chg

Close (bp) (bp) (bp) (bp) 3m avg 3m low 3m high 3m pctl.

4wk 3.63 -3.1 -2.6 -6.1 6.5 3.66 3.60 3.69 33%