J.P.Morgan ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY RESEARCH: INDIA FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

J.P.Morgan ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY RESEARCH: INDIA FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

India First to Market 17 June 2026

Top Stories

Bajaj Housing Finance (Gaurav Khandelwal, CFA) (BAJAJHFL IN, UW)

CEO/CFO discussions: Attrition tapering offers sector tailwind; but expensive valuations limit stock

upside

We hosted the CEO, CFO and senior management of Bajaj HF as part of the J.P. Morgan Bajaj Finance Investor Day on 15th

June. The most important takeaway is that BT-out (attrition) trends have tapered down QTD, after staying elevated over the last

9-12 months. This offers a positive read-through for the entire HFC sector. That said, select private banks have turned more

aggressive in the prime-mortgage segment, with PSBs (ex-SBI) also keeping competition elevated (in line with our

observations; see note on India Mortgages). On BFL’s 86.7% stake in BHFL, BFL management has guided for a significant

stake selldown at the right price, rather than piecemeal (regulatory obligation to lower stake to 75% by Sep-29). FY27 guidance

will be announced post 1Q print (expected 29th July), with medium-term RoA (2-2.2%) and RoE (13-15%) guidance unchanged.

The franchise is best-in-class, but high valuations of 2.48x/20.4x FY28 PB/PE (197/181% premium over peers) for a similar

RoE of 12-13% are unlikely to sustain, in our view. Maintain UW. Please see detailed takeaways on page 4 of the report.

Dixon Technologies (Bhavik Mehta, CFA) (DIXON IN, OW)

Revisiting Vivo JV approval scenario

As per media reports, the India government is expected to clear the long-pending Vivo JV approval this month. We revisit the

scenario analysis in this case. Dixon had highlighted that Vivo has 35mn annual volumes in India of which 67% will come to

Dixon, so ~22mn.