Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM.N): Maintaining Neutral with Positive Tailwinds in the Short Term

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Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM.N): Maintaining Neutral with Positive Tailwinds in the Short Term

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16 Jun 2026 17:34:44 ET │ 14 pages

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM.N)

Maintaining Neutral with Positive Tailwinds in the Short Term

CITI’S TAKE

We fully revise our estimates for SQM after 1Q26 results, considering Citi’s

Neutral / High Risk new Lithium book. We have a bullish outlook on the near-term lithium

Price (16 Jun 26 16:00) US$83.11 price, as restocking ahead of the Aug–Sep peak season and further export

front-loading should support a recovery in prices, with average selling Target price US$97.00↑

price risk skewed to the upside towards year-end, while maintaining our from US$95.00

long-term price forecasts. Given the former, our EBITDA estimate for 2026 Expected share price return 16.7%

increases by ~40%, and our target price increases to US$97 (from US$95). Expected dividend yield 3.3%

We maintain our Neutral/High Risk rating due to: 1) solid short-term Expected total return 20.0%

fundamentals albeit unchanged long-term view; 2) a market deficit in

Market Cap US$22,513M 2026 shifting to a limited surplus from 2027; and 3) because of these, we

see a limited potential re-rating. With this report, we transfer our SQM

coverage to Alan Trebitsch.

Alan TrebitschAC

Market tight in the near term, shifting to modest surplus thereafter — The lithium +56-22-873-6441

market is now expected to remain tight in 2026, with a small 4% deficit, driven by alan.trebitsch@citi.com

resilient demand and limited near-term supply additions despite recent inventory

Patrick Cunninghambuilds. Some supply recovery is anticipated, supported by restarts in Australia and

+1-212-816-6684some lithium export quotas from Zimbabwe, but new capacity is unlikely to materially