Japan IT Services: Microsoft adopts pay-by-use, reportedly mulls DeepSeek V4 for low-cost AI agents – DeepSeek shock 2

Research evidence excerpt

Japan IT Services: Microsoft adopts pay-by-use, reportedly mulls DeepSeek V4 for low-cost AI agents – DeepSeek shock 2

Flash |

17 Jun 2026 01:53:02 ET │ 9 pages

Japan IT Services

Microsoft adopts pay-by-use, reportedly mulls DeepSeek V4 for low-

cost AI agents – DeepSeek shock 2

CITI’S TAKE

Microsoft announced on the morning of June 17 that it was making M365

Copilot Cowork generally available under a pay-per-use model. In related

news, Axios reported that Microsoft is considering adopting DeepSeek as

a low-cost model for Cowork (link). We are not surprised by the adoption Moriya KoketsuAC

of a pay-per-use model as it aligns with our view that rising AI inference +81-3-6776-8304

costs need to be passed on to customers. We believe the pay-per-use moriya.koketsu@citi.com

model will increase users’ cost consciousness, likely reducing the

undisciplined use of frontier AI models (although total usage will likely

increase, driven by more disciplined use). Meanwhile, Microsoft’s reported

adoption of DeepSeek is unexpected. We had thought Chinese models

unlikely to be adopted for security reasons, but rising component prices

and the consequent increase in frontier AI model fees appear to have led

Microsoft to consider adopting DeepSeek.

DeepSeek — We see it as no exaggeration to call Microsoft considering adopting

DeepSeek “DeepSeek shock 2.” This further substantiates the commoditization of AI

models, and the competitive environment for frontier AI models will likely become

even more challenging going forward. We believe the reason for Microsoft’s apparent

adoption of DeepSeek is rising inference costs due to soaring token fees for frontier

AI models. For Microsoft, if customers do not use AI (computing power) due to soaring

token fees, revenue will not increase.