US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

16 June 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

ADPprivateemployment: ADP data suggest private payrolls slowed further to 25.5k per +1 212 667 9347

week in the four-week period ending 30 May from 29.0k previously. While this marks the Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

fourth consecutive weekly slowdown, the pace of job creation remained solid. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9637Importprices: Import prices rose by 1.9% m-o-m in May, exceeding the consensus

forecast of 1.0%. Excluding petroleum products, import prices continued to increase at a Ruchir Sharma - NSI

decent pace of 0.8% (Consensus: 0.5%). Import prices for non-auto consumer goods rose ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186by 0.5% m-o-m in May, an acceleration from the 0.2% increases in April and March.

However, since the BLS's methodological changes early last year, import prices for non- Jacklyn Goloborodsky - NSI

auto consumer goods tend to be revised down in later months. For instance, today the jacklyn.goloborodsky@nomura.com

April reading was revised lower to 0.2% from preliminarily reported 0.4%. Thus, we +1 212 298 4739

discount some of the strength in imported consumer goods prices in May. Global Economics

David Seif - NSIMaycorePCEtrackingupdate: Import prices for air passenger fares, an input into PCE’ david.seif@nomura.com

s price index for passenger fares for foreign travel, jumped sharply to 11.3% m-o-m NSA. +1 212 667 9180

Even after the BEA makes a seasonal adjustment, this component likely rebounded

sharply in May (Fig.1). Consequently, we revise up our tracking estimate for May core