Japan banking sector: Monetary policy: BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting and bank stocks Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

Japan banking sector: Monetary policy: BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting and bank stocks Quick Note

Global Markets Research

Japan banking sector: Monetary policy 16 June 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN BANKS

Research Analysts

BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting and bank stocks Japan banks

Ken Takamiya - NSC

ken.takamiya@nomura.comQuick Note +81 3 6703 1140

Monetary Policy Meeting and bank stocks (first impression)

The BOJ held its Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on 16 June and decided to hike its

policy rate (the uncollateralized overnight call rate) from around 0.75% to around 1.00%.

Given that bank stocks have strengthened recently on growing speculation about a rate

hike in June, we think that they will be range bound for a while on a lack of fresh catalysts,

although we also see potential for downward pressure from profit-taking selling in the very

near term. Even so, we retain our bullish stance on bank stocks as the BOJ has hinted

that it will continue to hike rates.

The BOJ's basic logic remains that, "given that [...] financial conditions have been

accommodative, the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the

degree of monetary accommodation". However, it also noted that "there is a risk of

underlying CPI inflation deviating upward to a level above the price stability target of 2

percent", and with Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida repeatedly saying that the BOJ will

continue to hike the policy rate at the press conference, we get the sense that the BOJ is

taking a slightly more hawkish tone than before. As before, the BOJ avoided any mention

of when the next rate hike would take place.

In view of the above, we retain our view that the BOJ will hike interest rates at intervals of

roughly six months. Based on this, our financial team expects the next rate hike to take