Australia Rates Insights: RBA holds in a unanimous decision

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Rates Insights: RBA holds in a unanimous decision

Global Markets Research

16 June 2026Australia Rates Insights

Rates - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

RBA holds in a unanimous decision Asia Rates Strategy

Andrew Ticehurst - NAL

Statement tilts hawkish. andrew.ticehurst@nomura.com

+61 2 8062 8611

Global Economics • The RBA board today announced an unchanged cash rate of 4.35%, as uniformly

David Seif - NSI expected, in a unanimous (9-0) decision, as we expected. david.seif@nomura.com

• Its press release contained some dovish comments but arguably tilted hawkish, on +1 212 667 9180

balance, with the board repeating that “it will do what it considers necessary” to

achieve its mandate (as we expected) but adding “including increasing the cash rate

target further if required”.

• This communication leaves us cautious on AUD rates in the near term, particularly

given the rally witnessed over recent weeks, while AUD could gain mild support.

The post-meeting press release tilts hawkish, with a sting in the tail

The monetary policy board today announced an unchanged cash rate, as uniformly

expected, and in a unanimous decision, as we thought likely. Following three consecutive

25bp rate hikes, and a strong 8-1 consensus to hike at its prior meeting in May, this comes

across as a material shift in the more dovish direction.

Some of the initial comments in its press release appear less hawkish / more dovish too:

(i) it noted that “some” firms experiencing cost pressures are increasing their prices (was

“many”); (ii) it noted that short-term measures of inflation expectations have eased (was

“have risen”); (iii) it acknowledged weaker consumer and housing market momentum; and

(iv) it said that higher fuel prices “have added” to inflation (was “are adding”).