Mercari (4385): Upgrade to Overweight: Trust and safety improvements and AI use diversifying GMV growth drivers

Research evidence excerpt

Mercari (4385): Upgrade to Overweight: Trust and safety improvements and AI use diversifying GMV growth drivers

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 June 2026

Mercari (4385) ▲Overweight

Previous: Neutral

Upgrade to Overweight: Trust and safety improvements 4385.T, 4385 JP

Price (16 Jun 26):¥3,768

and AI use diversifying GMV growth drivers ▲Price Target (Dec-26):¥5,000

Prior (Dec-26):¥3,200

Growth in Mercari's marketplace GMV has accelerated since the start of FY6/26, Japan Equity Research

but has been concentrated in the entertainment and hobbies category, such as

Games, Internet, Services

trading cards. We now focus on signs of accelerating growth in categories such as

apparel. In fintech, AI-based credit screening is paying off, with transaction Junko Yamamura AC

volume expanding even outside Mercari while credit risk stays contained. We (81-3) 6736-8644

junko.yamamura@jpmorgan.com

believe current GMV remains upbeat. The market remains concerned about the

Ryo Nakagawa

company's typically conservative guidance and the sustainability of GMV growth, (81-3) 6736-8643

and the shares have softened somewhat recently. We see strong investment appeal ryo.nakagawa@jpmorgan.com

and upgrade the shares from Neutral to Overweight as we raise our core operating JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

profit forecasts from FY6/26 and lift our price target through December 2026 from

¥3,200 to ¥5,000.

Key Changes (FYE Jun)

• Raising our medium-term core operating profit growth forecast: We Prev Cur Δ Adj. EPS - 26E (¥) 159.83 176.85 10.6%

project a CAGR of 12% over FY6/27–FY2028 (17.1% over FY6/26–FY6/28; Adj. EPS - 27E (¥) 182.32 215.74 18.3%

previously 10%). Since this exceeds the industry-average operating profit