EM FX Daily Report - 16th June 2026. Tue Jun 16 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 16th June 2026. Tue Jun 16 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 16 June 2026

EM FX

RUB As suspected, the drop in oil had minimal effect on ruble, with the pair opening up only

marginally higher and then closing lower on the day at 72.00/10. You just cannot oppose the

onshore supply of hard currency it seems. Maybe that will all change at some point but for now

it feels like earning the 17 percent Implieds (trading at 200-300 point premium to official rates)

is the best policy.

ZAR Risk failed to extend meaningfully higher after yesterday’s open, with markets in wait‑and‑see

mode ahead of Warsh’s first Fed meeting tomorrow. Flow wise, we saw significant demand for

USDZAR from HF accounts, but the pair remained largely range‑bound and finished the

session broadly unchanged. A dovish Warsh could be the catalyst the market needs to turn

decidedly bullish on EM like we saw earlier in the year . As a result, I continue to run short

USDZAR—mainly via options—into the event, while keeping some USD longs elsewhere

(primarily versus CAD and CHF).

TRY Markets are generally in consolidation mode this morning, following the rally in risk markets in

reaction to the U.S.–Iran agreement and potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. There are

several hurdles to overcome in the next 60 days, but the near term impulse is clearly positive

for risk and should support carry trades. Price action in Try remains sticky with the pace of

nominal depreciation in Try remaining in line with expectations with state banks currently

offering UsdTry around 46.3000. It must be noted there has been fair bit of pick-up in local