China Steel - Channel checker

Research evidence excerpt

China Steel - Channel checker

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

16 June 2026

10-day China steel output +4% vs previous (+2% YoY).

Bulk iron ore freight rates drop significantly

10-day China steel output 1,018Mt annualised, +4% vs previous: latest China European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACdaily crude steel output (10 days to 10 Jun) is tracking at a run rate of 1,018Mt Dominic O'Kane

annualised. This is +4% vs the previous 10 days (to 31 May) and +2% YoY. Trailing (44-20) 7742-6729

30-day steel production is -1% vs previous 30-day period and +1% YoY. Since dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

May, China reported steel output has tracked at the bottom end of the 5-year range. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Patrick Jones

A notable datapoint this week is a significant decline in bulk shipping costs; rates (44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

from Australia, Brazil and South Africa to China all saw declines week-on-week. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Australia to China bulk freight rates are now quoted at $10.9/t, -22% WoW (-$3/t)

Varun Bhattad

and both Brazil and South Africa to China bulk shipping rates are -3% WoW. This (91-22) 6157-5027

implies an Australian FOB iron ore price at $90/t, which is +4% vs end of Feb varun.bhattad@jpmchase.com

(+$3.5/t) when the US-Iran conflict began. However, we also note that Brazil and J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

South Africa iron ore bulk shipping freight rates remain >50% above pre-conflict Rosie Jia

levels, which competitively favours Australian iron ore miners. (44-20) 3493-7448

rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Among EMEA Metals & Mining iron ore exposed equities, we are Neutral on Rio

Tinto and BHP’s London listing. Our colleague Lyndon Fagan is OW BHP’s

Primary Australia listing and is OW Rio Tinto Ltd.