INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

• ASEAN STRATEGY: ASEAN equities posted their best day in more than a year with the PSEi

(+6%) and JCI (+4%) jumping after the US and Iran governments announced a deal to end the

conflict. At the sector level, we believe this would benefit Airlines, Industrials, Real Estate, and

Banks, while Defense, Energy, Materials, and Utilities might pull back after a period of

outperformance. As sentiment recovers and earnings visibility improves, we see opportunities to

buy stocks that might benefit from the reversal of: (1) earnings forecasts, (2) valuations, and (3)

institutional investor positioning.

• EA IP: Despite geopolitical headwinds and elevated energy prices, Euro area industrial

production rose 0.1% m/m in April, following an upwardly revised 0.4% m/m increase in March

(previously +0.2%), driven by upward revisions in France. The modest increase in industrial

output was driven by manufacturing production (0.2%m/m), while energy (electricity, gas) and

mining were down 1%m/m and 3.9%m/m in the month respectively.

• CATALYSTS TODAY: a) China Property Prices, Retail Sales, IP, FAI; b) Germany ZEW Survey

Expectations; c) US Import Price Index; d) BOJ Rate Decision; e) World Bank’s Annual

Conference on Development Economics in DC

IDEA & INSIGHTS – IN DETAILS

MONETIZATION: We are bullish on Global Equities

• Macro & thematics still impose the relative regional preference (long US & Asia – JA, SK &

TW - vs EU). The US is overheating, Europe in stagflation & Asia has pockets of both. Further,

secular themes carry less weight within EU Equities. That said, we have been tactically bullish

on EU Equities since early May on positioning, underperformance and regime switch on SoH

reopening. We continue to play this via options.