UK WATER, ADP, LNG, JPM GEOPOL/IRAN, UK SPOTLIGHT & MORE

Research evidence excerpt

UK WATER, ADP, LNG, JPM GEOPOL/IRAN, UK SPOTLIGHT & MORE

d the Strait with transponders on. We estimate Disha was

loaded in Ras Laffan on June 12-13 and exited Hormuz in the early hours of June 15, heading to Dahej, India. This was later

confirmed by Indian port authorities. After the Disha exit, we count just eight vessels inside the Strait, two of which currently

have their transponders switched off and may already be outside the Strait. Following a full reopening we maintain our view

that it will take 2-3 months for LNG exports from the region to reach normalized levels.

• JPM CENTER FOR GEOPOLITICS - The U.S. & Iran: Are We Back to Where We Started? (email available).

Agreement announced by the U.S. and Iran extends the “pause not peace” between the two sides. This agreement is an

important and welcome step toward steadying the ride—but we aren’t off the coaster yet.We expected this kind of narrow

agreement – the stalemate in the Strait was not sustainable for either side. Bottom line: de-escalation is easier than durability.

The terms of the deal and how it’s enforced will matter more than the over-the-top declarations both sides are making about

how they have won and who has the upper hand. For much more on this, stay tuned for our report later this week. Let me

know if you want the full email

• UK Spotlight: Makerfield Matters: Sector and Stock Implications of the UK’s Shifting Political Landscape (research

available). Less than two years after Labour won a decisive parliamentary majority in 2024, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer faces

mounting leadership pressure following May’s local elections. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is expected to win

this week’s Makerfield by-election, which would pave the way for him to formally push for the leadership of the party.