EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary: Oil - O&G - Utilities - Infrastructure

Research evidence excerpt

EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary: Oil - O&G - Utilities - Infrastructure

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 16 June 2026

Gulf exports will reach pre-war levels by the end of July. The lack of detail in the interim pact has kept the market cautious, with

many questions remaining over how it will be implemented, including concerns over shipping safety and operating rules.

- US President Donald Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by Friday, but his European allies don't share his optimism

and have practical questions about what was agreed. There are serious difficulties in finding a common position among the G7

group about how to deal with the situation in Iran, and few are expecting a joint communique.European countries have mine-

clearing capabilities and are planning to help reopen the strait, but they are seeking a final agreement between the US and Iran and

a cessation of hostilities before committing to the mission.

J. P. Morgan View

- Vols sold off through the front 12 months of the curve with Q ATMs closing down 4.5vs, Z6 ATMs closing down 1.6vs, and H7

ATMs closing down .5vs, while deferred tenors were mostly flat. Put skew reset higher down the entire curve with 25ds and 10ds

up around 1.25vs and 2.5vs respectively, with Q 10d put skew up as much as 4vs. Call skew sold off considerably with 25ds and

10ds down 2.5vs and 3.5 vs in bal26, and about half that amount in cal27.

Markets - SPX was DOWN roughly 10 BPs from the European close to finish up 1.65% on the day and marking its 3rd UP day in

a row on volumes slightly above the 10 & 20d – equal weighted S&P UNDERPERFORMED cap weighted @ +0,5% as did the