Daiichi Sankyo: Updating our forecasts: Datroway results a key determinant

Research evidence excerpt

Daiichi Sankyo: Updating our forecasts: Datroway results a key determinant

Global Markets Research

15 June 2026Daiichi Sankyo

4568.T 4568 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN PHARMACEUTICALS

Updating our forecasts: Datroway results a key determinant Rating Remains Buy

We still see risk of CMO loss compensation, think that Datroway trial Target price

results, due for release in 2026 H2, will determine direction from here Reduced from JPY JPY 4,000

4,500

We keep our Buy rating; much could hinge on results for non-small cell lung cancer

We revise our earnings forecasts for Daiichi Sankyo to reflect Jan–Mar results. We factor Closing price 12 June 2026 JPY 2,500.5in: (1) the sale of Daiichi Sankyo Healthcare; (2) compensation for losses at contract

manufacturing organizations (CMOs); (3) an overhaul of the antibody–drug conjugate Implied upside +60.0%(ADC) franchise; and (4) NHI drug price revisions in Japan. We revise our assumptions for

the risk-free rate from 1.5% to 2.0%, for beta from 0.8 to 0.9, and for WACC from 6.2% to

7.3%, in light of current conditions. We roll forward the base year for our DCF model and Relative performance chart

lower our target price to ¥4,000, but reiterate our Buy rating. The results for a trial of

Datroway as a first-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are slated for

release in 2026 H2 or thereafter, and we think this will be a crucial factor in earnings

growth and easing concerns about compensation for CMO losses. We think it could prove

effective based on preliminary results and the use of biomarkers (see our 10 December

2025 report on DaiichiSankyo).

Sale of OTC business: Dropout of earnings contributions from 27/3

(1) Daiichi Sankyo Healthcare: With the sale of shares to Suntory Holdings, the booking